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Wage-Price Spiral Proves Central Banks Mistake

Started by Epoch-Times-Bot, Dec 21, 2022, 09:00 AM

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Epoch-Times-Bot

Dec 21, 2022, 09:00 AM
Wage-Price Spiral Proves Central Banks Mistake

Commentary
As U.S. inflation has peaked and edged down slowly, those in Europe are following suit. Yet central banks dare not abruptly stop their tightening despite the highly reliable yield curve inverting deeply (near 100 basis points), showing a strong signal of recession ahead. Even though they know policy takes time to be effective where a stop now would still have a momentum (residual) effect for a few more quarters, they are willing to run a high risk of overdoing it by creating a recession or, more concretely, deepening or worsening it.
The root cause behind this, I guess, is due to the still strong labor market indicators. Unemployment rates are at very or even all-time lows everywhere, and wage growth remains high, albeit below inflation (price growth). This means income growth remains solid, and consumption (or permanent income hypothesis) suggests consumption and GDP growth will not be too bad. This leads to the recall of the wage-price spiral, where one reinforces the other as a vicious cycle. Central banks believe they need to break it down....

Source: Wage-Price Spiral Proves Central Banks Mistake

xenzol

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Aug 26, 2024, 12:49 AM
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