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Commentary
The Ukrainian war has entered a second, more dangerous phase.
This phase is marked by a significant Russian escalation of hostility, a call up of roughly 300,000 reservists, renewed Kremlin threats that all options are on the table, including the potential use of theater nuclear weapons and a Russian declaration that, following a plebiscite, the Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia regions of Ukraine have been annexed to Russia. The Kremlin has subsequently announced that further Ukrainian advances in these territories would constitute an attack on Russian territory.
Even more troubling is the appointment of Russian General Sergei Surovikin as the overall commander of Russian military forces in Ukraine. Surovikin has a reputation for ruthless brutality. He directed what geopolitical strategist and author Peter Zeihan called the "siege-starve-surrender policy that destroyed Aleppo in the Syrian Civil War." Per Zeihan:...